Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
