A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
